Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?
Research on the rising effort required to sustain technological and economy-wide productivity growth, including evidence from semiconductors, agriculture, medicine, and U.S. aggregate data.
Authors or creators: Nicholas Bloom, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen, Michael Webb
Checked: 2026-07-29
Source note: Primary peer-reviewed research. Its research-productivity measure depends on how research inputs and technological output are defined.
Claims connected to this source
- Measured semiconductor research productivity declined by roughly 7 percent per year.
- Aggregate U.S. research productivity fell by a factor of 41 from the 1930s.
- Sustaining exponential progress has required substantially more research effort.
